Cardiovascular Risk

In recent years, industrialized nations have seen a significant decline in cardiovascular mortality. This development is not only due to advances in acute care but also to improved control of risk factors—particularly hypercholesterolemia. There is now no doubt about the causal role of low-density lipoproteins (LDL) in the development of atherosclerosis.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and current clinical guidelines therefore regard LDL cholesterol (LDL-C) as a validated risk factor for cardiovascular disease. The causal effect of LDL has been consistently demonstrated through experimental studies on the pathogenesis of atherosclerosis and, more importantly, through interventional studies on cholesterol reduction. In particular, HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors (statins) show a linear relationship between the reduction in cardiovascular event risk and the potency of LDL-C lowering.

Interventional studies with other agents—such as ezetimibe and PCSK9 inhibitors—support the concept of a linear reduction in cardiovascular risk with decreasing LDL-C levels and further confirm the essential role of LDL-C in the pathogenesis of atherosclerosis. The atherogenic effects of lipid metabolism disorders are influenced by other, likewise treatable, risk factors like smoking, Hypertension and diabetes mellitus.

Secondary hyperlipoproteinemias are caused by risk factors associated with metabolic syndrome, hormonal changes, kidney diseases, liver diseases, and medications. In such cases, the underlying condition must be treated.

The lipid metabolism disorders associated with metabolic syndrome are the most commonly encountered in clinical practice. Metabolic syndrome, diabetes mellitus, and obesity share the same alterations in lipid profiles:

  • LDL-C is normal,
  • Triglycerides are elevated,
  • HDL-C is reduced.

TheThe lipid metabolism values are influenced by hormones and medications.se should be distinguished from primary lipid metabolism disorders.

  1. Hypothyroidism
  • LDL-C: ↑ Increased
    → Reduced hepatic LDL receptor activity leads to decreased LDL clearance.
  • HDL-C: ↔ or slightly ↑
    → May be normal or slightly elevated.
  • Triglycerides: ↔ or ↑
    → VLDL clearance is reduced; a mild increase may occur.

Note: Hypothyroidism is a common secondary cause of hypercholesterolemia.

  1. Acromegaly (Excess Growth Hormone in Adults)
  • LDL-C: ↓ Decreased or ↔
    → GH enhances LDL receptor expression and lipolysis.
  • HDL-C: ↓ Decreased
    → Mechanism unclear; possibly due to increased lipid turnover.
  • Triglycerides: ↑ Increased
    → GH-induced lipolysis raises free fatty acids → increased hepatic VLDL production.

Note: Despite lower LDL-C levels, cardiovascular risk is elevated in acromegaly.

  1. Growth Hormone Deficiency (in Adults)
  • LDL-C: ↑ Increased
    → Reduced GH → decreased LDL receptor activity.
  • HDL-C: ↓ Decreased
    → GH deficiency leads to lower HDL production.
  • Triglycerides: ↑ Increased
    → Reduced lipolysis and impaired fat metabolism.

Note: GH deficiency is associated with an unfavorable lipid profile and increased cardiovascular risk.

  1. Hypercortisolism (e.g., Cushing’s Syndrome)
  • LDL-C: ↑ Increased
    → Elevated hepatic lipid synthesis and reduced clearance.
  • HDL-C: ↓ Decreased
    → General disruption of lipoprotein metabolism.
  • Triglycerides: ↑ Markedly increased
    → Cortisol promotes lipolysis in adipose tissue and increases VLDL production.

Note: Patients with hypercortisolism often develop a lipid profile resembling metabolic syndrome.

Summary Table:

Condition

LDL-C

HDL-C

Triglycerides

Hypothyroidism

↑

↔ / ↑

↔ / ↑

Acromegaly

↓ / ↔

↓

↑

GH Deficiency

↑

↓

↑

Hypercortisolism

↑

↓

↑↑

  1. Beta-Blockers (especially non-selective, without intrinsic activity)
  • LDL-C: ↑ Increased
  • HDL-C: ↓ Decreased
  • Triglycerides: ↑ Increased

Note:
Conventional beta-blockers (e.g., propranolol) can negatively affect lipid metabolism. Newer vasodilating beta-blockers (e.g., nebivolol, carvedilol) tend to have more favorable or neutral metabolic effects.

  1. Thiazide Diuretics (e.g., hydrochlorothiazide)
  • LDL-C: ↑ Slightly increased
  • HDL-C: ↔ or slightly ↑
  • Triglycerides: ↑ Increased

Note:
These effects are dose-dependent. At low doses, changes are often minimal; at higher doses, a rise in triglycerides is more likely.

  1. Estrogens (e.g., in oral contraceptives or hormone replacement therapy)
  • LDL-C: ↓ Decreased
  • HDL-C: ↑ Increased
  • Triglycerides: ↑↑ Significantly increased

Note:
Estrogens increase hepatic VLDL production, particularly when taken orally, which can cause marked elevations in triglyceride levels.

  1. Progestins (alone or combined with estrogens)
  • LDL-C: ↑ or ↔ Increased or neutral
  • HDL-C: ↓ or ↔ Decreased or neutral
  • Triglycerides: ↔ or ↑

Note:
The effect varies by type. Androgenic progestins (e.g., levonorgestrel) tend to lower HDL-C, while newer types (e.g., drospirenone) are more metabolically neutral.

  1. Androgens (e.g., testosterone, anabolic steroids)
  • LDL-C: ↑ Increased
  • HDL-C: ↓ Decreased
  • Triglycerides: ↑ or ↔

Note:
Androgens often lower HDL-C significantly. The effects depend on the dose and route of administration. Anabolic steroid abuse typically causes a pronounced dyslipidemia.

  1. Antipsychotics (especially atypical agents like olanzapine, clozapine)
  • LDL-C: ↑ Increased
  • HDL-C: ↓ Decreased
  • Triglycerides: ↑↑ Markedly increased

Note:
Atypical antipsychotics promote weight gain, insulin resistance, and significant hypertriglyceridemia—especially with long-term use.

Summary Table:

Drug Class

LDL-C

HDL-C

Triglycerides

Beta-Blockers

↑

↓

↑

Thiazides

↑ (slightly)

↔ / ↑

↑

Estrogens

↓

↑

↑↑

Progestins

↑ / ↔

↓ / ↔

↔ / ↑

Androgens

↑

↓

↑ / ↔

Antipsychotics

↑

↓

↑↑

Lipid metabolism disorders increase cardiovascular risk. Therefore, in both treatment and prevention, it is essential to assess cardiovascular risk.

The chapter lidid disorders focuses on the treatment of lipid metabolism disorders without downplaying the importance of other risk factors. It also takes into account current debates surrounding the assessment of individual disease risk, the setting of treatment targets, and differential therapy approaches.

The primary goal of treating lipid metabolism disorders is the prevention of cardiovascular events. Prevention means avoiding the occurrence of such events. In order to implement meaningful preventive strategies, the individual cardiovascular risk must first be assessed and classified into risk categories. Once the individual risk is determined, targeted treatment strategies can be developed.

The recommendations based  are on the 2019/2021 ESC/EAS Guidelines for the management of dyslipidemias.

 

Cardiovascular Risk in Different Risk Groups

The main task is to identify which patients actually benefit from treatment of risk factors for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD).

With increasing age, the risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD) also rises. Women under the age of 40 have a very low cardiovascular risk, provided there are no additional modifiable risk factors that could increase the long-term risk of a cardiovascular event (CVE). On the other hand, men over 65 and women over 75 almost always have a significantly increased risk of experiencing a cardiovascular event within the next ten years. Therefore, in healthy individuals, the assessment of whether an intervention or treatment is necessary is limited to the age range of 55 to 75 for women and 40 to 65 for men. Only within this age range do the threshold values for intervention vary in a way that affects the ten-year risk.

The risk of a cardiovascular event can also be determined in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, patients with ASCVD, and those with chronic kidney disease. Based on this risk, the potential benefit of an intervention can be derived and discussed with the patient.

Cardiovascular Risk in Apparently Healthy Individuals

Cardiovascular Risk in Apparently Healthy Individuals

The 2019 ESC/EAS Guidelines for the Management of Dyslipidaemias defined cardiovascular risk as the probability that a person will suffer a fatal event within the next ten years.

To this end, the guidelines developed the Systemic Coronary Risk Estimation (SCORE) system. The SCORE system provided an estimate of the cumulative risk of suffering a fatal atherosclerotic event within ten years. These include heart attack, stroke, peripheral arterial disease, and sudden cardiac death. However, non-fatal cardiovascular events—such as non-fatal myocardial infarction or stroke combined with cardiovascular disease—are more suitable for guiding decisions on prevention and intervention than fatal events alone.

The 2021 ESC guideline therefore uses the sum of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events in a new algorithm called SCORE2. The risk of a non-fatal cardiovascular event is approximately three times higher than the risk of a fatal event.

According to the ESC guidelines, patients are categorized into four cardiovascular risk groups: low, moderate, high, and very high risk.

It is evident that certain individual characteristics significantly increase cardiovascular risk.

These include individuals with:

  • confirmed cardiovascular disease (CVD)
  • type 1 or type 2 diabetes mellitus
  • severe hypertension
  • familial hypercholesterolemia
  • chronic kidney disease

These individuals are considered to have a high or very high cardiovascular risk by default. In such cases, no formal risk estimation is necessary.

Both European and North American guidelines focus on LDL-C as the primary therapeutic target. They agree that the intensity of treatment should be proportional to the patient’s risk level.

A reduction in LDL-C by 40 mg/dL (approximately 1.0 mmol/L) is associated with a relative risk reduction of coronary events by about 22%, regardless of the baseline risk.
However, the absolute benefit increases with the overall cardiovascular risk.

Lipid target values by risk group:

  • Low or moderate risk:
    • Total cholesterol: < 190 mg/dL
    • LDL-C: < 115 mg/dL (~3.0 mmol/L)
  • High risk:
    • Total cholesterol: < 175 mg/dL
    • LDL-C: < 100 mg/dL (~2.6 mmol/L)
  • Very high risk:
    • Total cholesterol: < 155 mg/dL
    • LDL-C: < 55 mg/dL (~1.4 mmol/L)

Recent studies have shown that patients with lower LDL-C levels had significantly lower cardiovascular risk

SORE2 & SCORE2-OP

ESC Guidelines 2021:

ESC Guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention in clinical practice, Eur Heart J 2021 Sep 7; 42(34): 3227–3337.

Eur Heart J, Volume 42, Issue 34, 7 September 2021, Pages 3227–3337, https://doi.org/10.1093/eurheartj/ehab484

Compared to the 2019 guidelines, the group of individuals over 70 years old has been deliberately subdivided.
Looking at the table, it becomes clear that all men over 73 and all women over 76 are considered to be at very high cardiovascular risk.
This highlights that for this group, calculating SCORE2-OP is unnecessary.

For men over 73 and women over 76, there is no need to refer to the risk chart; treatment of cardiovascular risk factors should begin immediately.

Countries are classified into very high-risk, high-risk, moderate-risk, and low-risk categories. The risk charts are designed to estimate the cardiovascular risk of individuals without existing cardiovascular disease.

These tables are suitable for estimating the individual 10-year risk of a fatal or non-fatal cardiovascular event in people aged 40 to 69 years with previously untreated or stable risk factors.

The SCORE2 system differentiates between men and women, as well as between smokers and non-smokers.
Other key risk factors include:

  • systolic blood pressure
  • age
  • non-HDL cholesterol

As age increases, the impact of lipids and blood pressure on cardiovascular risk decreases. At the same time, the risk of dying from non-cardiovascular causes increases.

To prevent overtreatment in older patients, the Systematic Coronary Risk Estimation 2–Older Persons (SCORE2-OP) algorithm was introduced. It estimates the 10-year risk of a cardiovascular event in individuals aged over 70.

The use of the risk charts follows the following procedure:
First, the appropriate country risk category must be identified, along with the corresponding risk chart for the individual’s sex, smoking status, and nearest age group.

In that chart, the field that most closely matches the individual’s systolic blood pressure and non-HDL cholesterol level is selected.

Risk estimates should be adjusted upward if the individual is close to the next higher age category.

Low-Risk Countries:

Belgium, Denmark, France, Israel, Luxembourg, Norway, Spain, Switzerland, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom (UK).

Moderate-Risk Countries:

Austria, Cyprus, Finland, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Malta, Portugal, San Marino, Slovenia, and Sweden.

High-Risk Countries:

Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Poland, Slovakia, and Turkey.

Very High-Risk Countries:

Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bulgaria, Egypt, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lebanon, Libya, Lithuania, Montenegro, Morocco, Republic of Moldova, Romania, Russian Federation, Serbia, Syria, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Tunisia, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan.

Based on age, sex, blood pressure, and non-HDL cholesterol, the individual’s 10-year cardiovascular risk can then be read from the appropriate chart.

Feingold KR. Guidelines for the Management of High Blood Cholesterol. [Updated 2025 Mar 27]. In: Feingold KR, Ahmed SF, Anawalt B, et al., editors. Endotext [Internet]. South Dartmouth (MA): MDText.com, Inc.; 2000-. Available from: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK305897/

Kane SP. ASCVD Risk Calculator: 10-Year Risk of First Cardiovascular Event Using Pooled Cohort Equations. ClinCalc: https://clincalc.com/cardiology/ascvd/pooledcohort.aspx.

 Updated July 19, 2024. Accessed July 20, 2025.

„This peer-reviewed online calculator uses the Pooled Cohort Equations to estimate the 10-year primary risk of ASCVD (atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease) among patients without pre-existing cardiovascular disease who are between 40 and 79 years of age.1 Patients are considered to be at “elevated” risk if the Pooled Cohort Equations predicted risk is ≥ 7.5% (possibly ≥ 5%). In many ways, the Pooled Cohort Equations have been proposed to replace the Framingham Risk 10-year CVD calculation, which was recommended for use in the NCEP ATP III guidelines for high blood cholesterol in adults.3

Current guidelines for the treatment of cholesterol to reduce cardiovascular risk recommend that the following four groups of patients will benefit from moderate- or high-intensity statin therapy:2

  • Individuals with clinical ASCVD
  • Individuals with primary elevations of LDL ≥ 190 mg/dL
  • Individuals 40 to 75 years of age with diabetes and an LDL 70 to 189 mg/dL without clinical ASCVD
  • Individuals without clinical ASCVD or diabetes who are 40 to 75 years of age with LDL 70 to 189 mg/dL and a 10-year ASCVD risk of 5-7.5% or higher“

„

The simplest approach is to use a CVD risk calculator. The required inputs are: sex, age, race, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, and systolic blood pressure. Additionally, it must be indicated whether the person is on blood pressure medication, has diabetes, or is a smoker.”

As shown above, among patients who do not otherwise have a compelling indication for statin therapy, the Pooled Cohort Equations can be used to estimate primary cardiovascular risk and potential benefit from statin therapy.“

Differences Between AHA/ACC and ESC/EAS Guidelines

DEFINITION OF VERY HIGH RISK

This definition is important because it sets the stage for considering intensive LDL-C lowering and the use of combined drug therapy for LDL-C lowering. AHA/ACC defines very high risk as a history of multiple ASCVD events or of one event + multiple high-risk conditions. This limits the definition of very high risk to the highest risk patients among those with ASCVD. In contrast, ESC/EAS considers all patients with clinical ASCVD or ASCVD on imaging as very high risk. Additionally, ESC/EAS allows extension of the definition to highest risk patients in primary prevention, that is, to patients with multiple risk factors and/or subclinical atherosclerosis (table 9). Overall, more patients will be identified as being at very high risk by ESC/EAS guidelines. This could enlarge the usage of PCSK9 inhibitors. AHA/ACC limits the use of PCSK9 inhibitors to patients at highest risk, because of their high cost. One recent study (43) showed that only about 10% of patients with established ASCVD will be eligible for PCSK9 inhibitors by AHA/ACC recommendations.“

Feingold KR. Guidelines for the Management of High Blood Cholesterol. [Updated 2025 Mar 27]. In: Feingold KR, Ahmed SF, Anawalt B, et al., editors. Endotext [Internet]. South Dartmouth (MA): MDText.com, Inc.; 2000-. Available from: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK305897/